This is Gabriel Rench with your CrossPolitic Daily News Brief for Wednesday, May 20th, 2020.
Before we get into the News Brief, we are hosting our first annual Fight Laugh Feast Conference in Nashville October 1st through 3rd. Step out of the boring, benign Christian conference circuit, and step into the rowdy Christian world of engaging culture with your faith, standing firmly on God’s word. Most conferences will lull your faith to sleep and teach you how to be nice, all the while our culture needs a gospel that packs a punch that is full of fighting, laughing, and feasting. So please join us this October 1st through the 3rd as we build a rowdy Christian culture for God’s glory and our good.
Neil Ferguson, remember the professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, the one who in all his omniscience, created the initial Coronavirus model that predicted up to two million people could be killed due to the COVID pandemic. Well it turns out this was not the first time he cried wolf.
According to the Spectator, here are six instances of voodoo modeling gong wrong at the fingertips of Neil Ferguson:
- In 2005, Ferguson said that up to 200 million people could be killed from bird flu. He told the Guardian that ‘around 40 million people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak… There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it up to around 200 million people probably.’ In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.
- In 2009, Ferguson and his Imperial team predicted that swine flu had a case fatality rate 0.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent. His most likely estimate was that the mortality rate was 0.4 per cent. A government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the disease would lead to 65,000 UK deaths. In the end swine flu killed 457 people in the UK and had a death rate of just 0.026 per cent in those infected.
- In 2001 the Imperial team produced modeling on foot and mouth disease that suggested that animals in neighboring farms should be culled, even if there was no evidence of infection. This influenced government policy and led to the total culling of more than six million cattle, sheep and pigs – with a cost to the UK economy estimated at £10 billion.It has been claimed by experts such as Michael Thrusfield, professor of veterinary epidemiology at Edinburgh University, that Ferguson’s modeling on foot and mouth was ‘severely flawed’ and made a ‘serious error’ by ‘ignoring the species composition of farms,’ and the fact that the disease spread faster between different species. Does Ferguson acknowledge that his modeling in 2001 was flawed…sooo
- In 2002, Ferguson predicted that between 50 and 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. He also predicted that number could rise to 150,000 if there was a sheep epidemic as well. In the UK, there have only been 177 deaths from BSE.
What is going on with education?
States and schools across the nation are working on strategies for students to go back to school in the fall. While most states and schools seem to be planning on opening up in person scenarios, Colorado’s Governor estimates that up to 20% of parents will want to keep their kids at home. California’s Governor, who continues to thrive in ambiguity and a supposed genuine concern for citizens health, said in regards to schools opening up: “”I think some schools will not be. Many schools will be…There’s nuance. But we are moving forward, in hope and expectation that we can start that school year very strategically and methodically, again, based upon the health as a prime frame of reference in terms of those decisions.”
Oh Gov Newsom’s comments turn my stomach. First he said “nuance”. No christian should be using that term this decade. We need to put a moratorium on that term, because currently nuance is for cowards. Secondly, he is going to base opening up California on a supposed concern for your health. Forget abortions, for get marijuana, forget the rampant porn industry in California, Gov. Newsome cares about your health. Be leery of politicians who say they care about your health, and are willing to enact totalitarian regulations and laws in the name of protecting you.
According to my friend Robert Bortins and full disclosure, Classical Conversations is one of our amazing corporate sponsors, he notes that:
“Then scientific studies and unscientific reports started to come in. First an EdChoice study was published which found 52% of parents had a more favorable view of homeschooling as a result of their insta-homeschooling experiences. In response to that study, a non-scientific study followed by Reason that showed nearly 15% of those from public or private school were planning on homeschooling this fall. Now those who follow Reason, are probably less in the mainstream than your average American, and so more likely to homeschool. Even if only 4% of those whose children are in government-run schools decide to homeschool this fall, the number of homeschoolers will effectively double overnight.”
As we have noted on our show many many times is that education is a battleground, and it is my hope and prayer that parents reclaim their central duty and responsibility of educating their children in the nurture and admonition of the Lord.
Democrats block progress at their peril
There was a helpful article from thehill.com, that stated: “40 percent of low-income Americans have lost their jobs, entire industries are on the verge of collapse and tens of thousands of small-business owners are watching their nest eggs and dreams go up in smoke.
Plus, the collateral damage to Americans is hideous. Millions have foregone medical treatments and check-ups. In addition, Well Being Trust, a national public health group, has recently warned that the isolation and fear brought on by the virus could lead to increased alcohol or drug abuse, resulting in 75,000 deaths.”
Don’t forget what I just quoted here, because I am going to appear like I am changing the subject. Bear with me, hold tight.
Economist Henry Hazlit wrote a basic introduction to economics, and the principle found in this book can be applied to so many different disciplines and applies to numerous situations. His book, Economics in one Lesson, should be a required curriculum for all high schoolers, politicians, and ignoramuses. The second chapter, or lesson, is labeled The Broken Window. More on that in a minute, but in his first chapter he ends with this quote:
“The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.”
So, he encourages us to think about the long term consequences of our decisions. This means if we take out a loan now to bailout our economy, and make sure everyone has Netflix for the next year, etc… what are the long term effects from taking out that loan?
Let me use Hazlitt’s illustration, actually it is Frédéric Bastiat, but I digress. Let’s say a bad guy comes and throws a rock through your window, and gets away scot free. You were working hard to save up money because you wanted to join CrossPolitic’s club membership, which you can do at FightLaughFeast.com. Now instead of joining the club, you now had to spend money fixing the window. So, you pay to get your window fixed. Now what just happened there. Well you created a job for a carpenter to fix you window, right? That is good for the economy! Spending money for other people to work, is good for the economy-right? Jobs, jobs, jobs. Well not so fast. You originally were going to buy a club membership, which in return creates jobs at CrossPolitic, and at the same time challenges you and your faith, and now you are excited and engaged to go teach others, or to run for public office, the list is endless. So, instead of taking your hard earn money to invest in CrossPolitic, you had to repair a window. What is more valuable? What is going to give you a better return on investment? What is a productive use of your money? If the thief was caught, he would pay to repair your money, and you can still sign up for the Club!
You see the broken window effect demonstrates so much that is wrong with our politicians and economy. Our politicians shove “Shelter in” resolution down our throats and we dont even consider what are the alternatives or the long term consequences to our politicians actions. The government broke the window, and your liberties are your preferred investment. The government breaks the window and then you have to spend your money fixing it, all the while it is hard to see the downstream effects and ripple effects of the consequences of our governments actions. So pastors, fathers, mothers, children all listening to this news brief constantly should be asking what are the downstream effects of my decisions, of my actions, and are they lining up with God’s will and His word. That is the starting point, and once we understand wisdom and the fear of the Lord, we will be far more equipped to see the broken windows all around us. You see every bill passed by congress, every city council decision, every bill you governor signs has downstream unforeseen consequences, and it is so important that we as Christians cultivate our hearts and minds to have the kind of wisdom and foresight to know that broken windows should not be the normal way we do politics and build societies.
This is Gabriel Rench with Crosspolitic News. Support Rowdy Christian media and join our club at fightlaughfeast.com. With your partnership, you will get a Fight Laugh Feast t-shirt, discount to our annual conference, and access to our Club portal. Our club portal includes episodes on Pastors in Politics, East Coast Tour content, God and Government, and backstage interviews with people like Voddie Baucham, Douglas Wilson, James White, Tom Ascol, Erick Erickson, and David French. You can find all our shows on our app, which you can download at your favorite app store, just search “Fight Laugh Feast”. Lastly, we hope to meet you at our first annual Fight Laugh Feast Conference in Nashville, TN October 1st through the 3rd. Go to fightlaughfeast.com to register now. Have a great day. Lord bless