Daily News Brief 11/06/2020
This is Gabriel Rench with your CrossPolitic Daily News Brief for Friday, November 6th, 2020.
Well if 2020 could’ve gotten any crazier. Michigan protestors are shouting “stop the count”, the Trump Campaign is sewing all the demoractic cities that are having election irregularities, why all the polls are wrong, and ESPN layoffs, and more. But first I would like to remind you, if you come across a news story you think we might need to cover, please send it to: news at crosspolitic dot com. This is a great way to share articles and stories with us that may end up in our daily or weekly shows: newsatCrossPolitic.com
North Carolina says it will not update election results until November 12
North Carolina’s boards of elections have announced it will not be updating the election results for more than a week.
Despite the importance North Carolina could play in terms of determining both the presidency and control of the U.S. Senate, the state’s county election boards have announced they will not begin the process of counting the outstanding absentee and provisional ballots until November 12.
More than 95% of North Carolina’s votes have been counted, but the margin between President Trump and former vice president Joe Biden stands at 1.4%, with Trump holding 50.1% of the vote and Biden holding 48.7%. Sen. Tom Tillis (48.7%) leads Democrat challenger Cal Cunningham (46.9%) by a slightly larger margin.
Why the polls were wrong about Trump (again)
According to Yahoo News:
“Pollsters systematically underestimated President Trump’s support — again. This time, they missed by an even bigger margin than in 2016. And Yahoo News was no exception; our final YouGov poll gave Democrat Joe Biden a 10-point lead.
And so even if Trump doesn’t beat Biden, he has largely beaten his pre-election polls.
The question is why almost everyone was off.
The 2020 polling error “matches the pattern of the 2016 error really well, so there really does seem to be something wrong here,” explained G. Elliott Morris, a data journalist who runs the Economist’s election forecast, during a Wednesday postmortem on the “Science of Politics” podcast. “It’s not just two random polling errors.”
Across the Rust Belt in particular, the polls and the results weren’t even close:
In Michigan, this year’s final FiveThirtyEight polling average (the most comprehensive and careful in the field) showed Biden ahead by 7.9 percentage points. The race is now on track to be decided by less than 2 points. Four years ago, Hillary Clinton led by an average of about 4 points in Michigan heading into Election Day. She lost by one-quarter of a point. That means this year’s Michigan polls were off by 6 or 7 points — and less accurate than 2016’s by something like 2 or 3.
In Wisconsin, this year’s final polling average showed Biden ahead by 8.4 percentage points. He is now on track to win by less than 1 point. Four years ago, Clinton led by an average of about 5 points in Wisconsin heading into Election Day. She lost to Trump by less than a point. That means this year’s Wisconsin polls were off by as much as 8 points — and less accurate than 2016’s by about 2.
In Ohio, this year’s final polling average showed Trump ahead by 0.8 percentage points. He is now on track to win by 8. Four years ago, Trump led by an average of 2 points in Ohio heading into Election Day. He won by 8. That means this year’s Ohio polls were off by about 7 points — and less accurate than 2016’s by about 1.
And in Iowa, this year’s final FiveThirtyEight polling average showed Trump ahead by 1.3 points. He is now on track to win by about 7. Four years ago, Trump led by an average of 3.4 points in Iowa heading into Election Day. He won by 9. That means this year’s Iowa polls were off by nearly 6 points — and just as inaccurate as 2016’s.
In Florida, Biden led in the final polling average by 2.5 points; it looks like he is going to lose by about 3.5, for a 6-point polling miss.
In Nevada, Biden led in the final polling average by 5.3 points; it looks like the results will be extremely close, for a roughly 5-point polling miss.
In Texas, Trump led by 1.1 points in the final polling average; it looks like he is going to win by 6, for another 5-point polling miss.
In Pennsylvania, Biden led in the final polling average by 4.7 points; that will probably prove to be off by a few points once all the votes are tallied.
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New Jersey signs strongest plastic and paper bag ban in US
On Nov. 4, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) signed the strongest single-use bag ban in the nation, effectively prohibiting the use of single-use plastic and paper bags in all stores and food service establishments across the state.
The bill, S864, was introduced into the New Jersey state Senate with five primary sponsors, including Sens. Bob Smith, Linda Greenstein, and Nancy Pinkin, all Democrats. It traveled through several committees before being passed on Sept. 24.
Some of the containers affected by the ban include plastic carryout bags, single-use paper carryout bags, polystyrene foam food service products (commonly known as Styrofoam), as well as the limited usage of plastic drinking straws.
The bill goes into effect in May 2022, with products like meat and fish trays, pre-packed polystyrene foam food containers, and select straws being legal for another two years after that.
Affirmative action push in Proposition 16 fails to win over California voters
“Californians rejected affirmative action in Tuesday’s election, opposing the repeal of a 1996 ban on considering race and gender in public hiring, college admissions and contracting.
Proposition 16, placed on the ballot by the Democratic-controlled Legislature, was failing 56% to 44% as votes continued to be counted. It sought to repeal Proposition 209, which barred the state from discriminating against or granting preferential treatment to any person or group based on race, sex, ethnicity or nationality.
After a summer of civil unrest fueled by the police killing of a Black Minnesotan and a pandemic that underscored the country’s racial disparities, Democratic lawmakers said it was time to allow a new generation of Californians to revisit the question.
Arnold Steinberg, a strategist with the “No” on Proposition 16 campaign, declared victory on Tuesday night.
“We faced a daunting uphill battle against an initiative put on the ballot at the last minute by the state Legislature,” said Steinberg, who also worked as a strategist for the Proposition 209 campaign in 1996. “In a state hardly seen as conservative, voters rejected a repeal of the state constitution’s guarantee of equal treatment by race.””
ESPN Slashes 500 Jobs in Major Cost-Cutting Move
ESPN is eliminating 500 jobs in an effort to cut costs amid the coronavirus pandemic, Jimmy Pitaro informed his staff on Thursday.
In a memo obtained by TheWrap, the president of ESPN said the Disney-owned company would be laying off 300 staffers and scrapping 200 open positions in an effort to shift more resources toward ESPN’s direct-to-consumer business strategy, digital content and “continued innovative television experiences.”
“Prior to the pandemic, we had been deeply engaged in strategizing how best to position ESPN for future success amidst tremendous disruption in how fans consume sports,” Pitaro wrote. “The pandemic’s significant impact on our business clearly accelerated those forward-looking discussions. In the short term, we enacted various steps like executive and talent salary reductions, furloughs and budget cuts, and we implemented innovative operations and production approaches, all in an effort to weather the COVID storm.”
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